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Space Wars: The First Six Hours of World War III
Permanent link to this article: http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0702.html
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Space Wars: The First Six Hours of World War III
Space Wars by Willliam Scott, Michael Coumatos, and William Birnes, Forge Books (April 17, 2007) describes how the first hours of World War III might play out in the year 2010. While fiction, it's based on real-world military scenarios and technologies, dramatically highlighting the West's vulnerability to destruction of its space-based commercial and military communications infrastructure.
In 2010, advanced space weapons fall into the hands of radical
Islamic terrorists, who launch them against the West's reconnaissance,
weather, and communications satellites. Meanwhile, inside U.S. Strategic
Command, top military commanders, space-company executives, and
U.S. intelligence experts are conducting a "DEADSATS II"
wargame, exploring how the loss of critical satellites could lead
to nuclear war. The players don't know that the war they are gaming
has already begun in space and that the Pentagon is about to find
out that data from the GPS satellite system is no longer reliable,
making accurate military operations impossible worldwide....
What makes Space Wars especially credible—and a fascinating
and informative read—is the outstanding technical and military
expertise of two of the authors. Michael Coumatos is a former U.S.
Navy test pilot, ship's captain and commodore, US Space Command
director of war gaming, and government counterterrorism
advisor.
William Scott recently retired as Rocky Mountain bureau chief
for Aviation Week and Space Technology magazine, a Flight Test Engineer
graduate of the U.S. Air Force Test Pilot School, and an electronics
engineering officer at the National Security Agency.
We asked him for a reality check.
- Amara D. Angelica, Editor, KurzweilAI.net
How close are the scenarios and wargaming descriptions in
Space Wars to the real world?
In my opinion, the Space Wars scenarios are very realistic,
based on my years of reporting on military space issues. The vulnerability
of U.S. satellites—commercial, civil and military—has
concerned milspace professionals and leaders for many years. As
one Cincspace told me almost 10 years ago (paraphrased), "I
have nightmares about getting that call from the president, saying:
'What's killing our satellites, who or what's responsible and what
are you doing about it?' I sure don't want my answer to be: 'I don't
know, I don't know and I don't know.'" In other words, that
four-star Cincspace (we no longer have a "Commander-in-chief"
of space, so that term's out of date) and his U.S. "space warriors"
are in dire need of national policies, doctrines, realistic strategies
and tactics, and more tools to deal with myriad threats to our space
infrastructure.
Still, progress IS being made. Sensors that will help engineers
and space operators quickly determine whether an anomaly is caused
by cosmic rays or somebody lasing or jamming a satellite ARE being
built into new national security spacecraft. However, those sensors
are still not being installed routinely on commercial satellites—even
though the Defense Dept. relies heavily on commercial comsats and
imaging sats.
The wargaming scenarios—as well as some of the "real-world"
scenarios—in Space Wars are amalgamations of outcomes
and insights gained from actual wargames, such as those listed on
pg. 7 of the book's forward.
Finally, weapons and systems depicted in SW are real or based on
real-world technologies, although some remain classified. For instance,
as an AvWeek reporter, I confirmed years ago that classified
tests done at China Lake NAS, Calif., proved that a maser could
be accurately controlled and targeted by first firing a laser, then
firing the maser a split second later. The latter's microwave beam
would follow the laser-formed "waveguide" through the
air, enabling the beam to be aimed accurately and controlled.
Has such a weapon been developed and deployed? I don't know. Would
it also work in space, or would the maser beam start wandering like
wet spaghetti, once it left the atmosphere? I don't know that, either.
Some scientists believe the beam would remain coherent and stable
in space, but I was never able to confirm that tests had demonstrated
that ability. Inside the atmosphere, though, actual testing DID
confirm that the laser-maser combination enabled accurately targeting
objects with high-energy microwave beams.
Ref. the Blackstar system: I now have several photos of the XOV
spaceplane sitting on a Lockheed Martin flightline ramp, so the
vehicle definitely exists. Based on 15+ years of sighting reports,
inside sources, etc., I determined that Blackstar's SR-3 carrier
aircraft and several versions of the XOV were built and flown. An
AvWeek
cover story describing the system ran in the March 6, 2006,
issue.
Blackstar spaceplane? (Aviation Week)
Despite considerable feedback that spanned the spectrum from attaboy
support to flaming criticism, the stories DID prompt airtight confirmation
to come back to me from impeccable sources. Bottom line: some may
dispute it, but the Blackstar system exists and has flown. Whether
it can achieve orbit and was/is used exactly as we've depicted via
"Speed's" flights in Space Wars is strictly an educated
guess, based on my AvWeek reporting.
What are your thoughts on the recent Chinese destruction
of their satellite, and the possibility that it was an ASAT test?
It was definitely considered to be an ASAT test, according to several
general officers who spoke at last week's Space Symposium here in
Colo. Springs. I think such an ASAT threat has existed for some
time, and our milspace professionals knew it was just a matter of
time until some entity demonstrated it. The Russians already HAD
demo'd the capability decades ago, and Doug Pearson really DID shoot
down a satellite in 1985, firing a missile from his F-15. As the
USAF commander of Space Command said last week, the Chinese ASAT
test was a major wakeup call for all spacefaring nations, proving
once and for all that "space is no longer a sanctuary."
How does Russia's planned Glonass system relate to the European
nav sat system described in the book?
Both are considered alternatives to the U.S. GPS network. Ultimately,
Russia, Europe and the U.S. envision some commercial receivers will
be able to use any of these signals for precise navigation and timing.
Glonass and Galileo are being developed to (ostensibly) ensure satellite-based
nav and timing will always be available, because the U.S. system
could be turned off at will. The U.S. military controls GPS, and
the Pentagon could disable certain or all GPS signals during a national
emergency — writ "war."
Yet, GPS signals are becoming virtual global utilities, depended
upon by millions of users. The Euros, Russians, Japan and others
see billions of dollars to be made by selling receivers and GPS-embedded
products, as well, and want to get in on that commercial action.
Bottom line, though, is this: they're alternatives to GPS, sold
to financiers as "guaranteed service" options, should
the U.S. turn off GPS.
Are there any other recent technical, military, political,
and other developments that tie in with the book or that were predicted
in the book?
The Iranian political situation today is playing out largely as
we anticipated. Technologies for "operationally responsive
space" — smallsats and quick-response launchers —
are evolving quickly. Autnomous on-orbit servicing of satellites
is being demonstrated now by the Orbital Express spacecraft, a feature
that plays more dramatically in our sequel, Space Wars II (now being
written by the same coauthors). The Chinese ASAT test has awakened
Congress and American citizens to the potential threats facing our
space infrastructure, but I don't think our political leaders fully
appreciate what impacts those threats could have on the U.S. national
security posture and citizens' activities.
What kind of comments are you getting from savvy early readers
so far?
Initial feedback we're getting is that Space Wars' message
is "bang-on," prophetic, scary and very timely. Many readers
either had no idea the U.S.—and modern civilization, in general—was
so dependent on "space," or that losing satellites might
have such dramatic impacts in the geopolitical realm, as well on
people's daily lives. Perhaps the most succinct feedback I've heard
was: "This is a very possible, very scary future. I hope it
doesn't come true." Although many of our readers, who have
a military background, are aware of the threats we depict, they
hadn't put the IMPACTS of attacks on satellites and the ISS into
context the way Space Wars does—or so they're telling us.
Last Thursday, during the annual Space Symposium (attended by approx.
7,000 space professionals from across the globe), many senior military,
commercial and civil leaders bought copies of Space Wars and had
Mike and me sign their books. Interestingly, the first two copies
were purchased by a two-star USAF general, who is the chancellor
of the National Security Space Institute, and her aide. She also
wants to talk to us about some "hot-button" issues we
should consider for our second Space Wars book.
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Mind·X Discussion About This Article:
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Space wars
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Space wars with their interplanetary battles are as near to reality as the most stupid fairy tales. Any scenarios of space war cannot go outside the laws of nature. This does not follow, that we do know the laws.
From thousands of fictions where was mentioned the future are some coincidences. Most of them are such as in “The First 48 Hour of the War with the Fascist Germany” (see OKTYABR’ for 1939). How it was in reality is well known. It seems, that the epics of ‘Space Wars’ are more distant from reality. To say nothing about political senselessness there is broke of nature’s laws.
The catastrophic destructiveness of the coming war with its tremendous losses is possible to escape. The USA should not force democracy to societies with a jungle level of understanding of what democracy is. The USA should not defend their ill-wishers, e.g. in Europe. Tremendous money spent for this (many hundreds of billions), and money which would came after balancing the trade, would allow in some short time to become not an importer, but an exporter of fuel. It would allow the creation of a near absolute defense from missiles and other means that are dangerous for the USA.
E.g. in Iran or Korea must be destroyed everything that is dangerous for the USA. Iranian missiles with A-bombs, which can reach Moscow or Paris, should be indifferent to the USA. If something there is dangerous to the USA, it must be completely destroyed. It should be announced as official politics. Then Europe instead of flirting with terrorists would implore the USA to include them into its defense system. In addition, they would give all the necessary money.
Russia does not learn. When the great Reagan told Gorbachev “You would not win this arm race”, he had in mind do not compete with SDI if you do not want to lose your country. He knew what he said. Now Russia once more started a competition in arm race. This is done in the presence of a mighty China. The result is definite.
The USA can allow some reasonable egoism. The USA is the only really self-sufficient country. Its temporary and partial isolation would not greatly influence its life. However, the rest of the world could not bear it.
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Re: Space wars
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I HAVE A FEAR THAT "COMMON WEALTH MOVEMENT ALIAS COMMUNISM WITH SLAVERY" MOVEMENT INTERNATIONALLY,AND FEW CURSES TO MANKIND LIKE NEUROTIC DRUG,E.D.T.A.DRUG,MASK TECHNOLOGY,ILLEGAL USE OF ANESTHESIA, ILLEGAL INSTALLTION OF MICROCHIPS LINKED WITH INTERNET ON BUSINESSES AND GOVERNMENT OFFICES,ILLEGAL INSTALLTION OF VIDEO CAMERAS, MICROPHONES AT HOUSES, BUSINESSES,CARS OF THE BUSINESS OWNERS,
" VAGUE STOOP THEORIES" , KILLER LOBBIES WORKING INTERNATIONALLY ON DIFFERENT COUNTRIES,ALL BRANCHES OF NEURO-SCIENCE WINGS IS DRAGGING THE WORLD TOWARDS WORLD WAR III, AND IT COULD BE WELL BEFORE 2010.
INFACT THE COLD WAR IS ALREADY STARTED AMONG FEW COUNTRIES OF EUROPE,AND RUSSIA HAS BEEN FORCIBLY INVOLVED AFTER BREAK (?) IN 1992.
SOME PEOPLE ARE DRAGGING USA TOWARDS "COMMUNISM WITH SLAVERY" ON THE NAME OF "COMMON WEALTH".
THE WAR IS MORE STRATEGIC ON BRAIN TO BRAIN RATHER THAN ACTUAL WEAPONIC WAR BECAUSE OF NEUROTIC DRUG.
THE PEOPLE WITH POWERFUL BRAIN USING JET SPPED STRATEGY WILL BE WINNER.
HEMANT PARIKH |
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Re: 5000 lbs of ball berings and LEO don't mix
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I'm not an expert, but I think that the odds of that being disastrous are pretty low. This is all purely guesswork, but:
I don't think a significant percentage of the bearings would find themselves in a semi-stable orbit that would last more than a few hours, being projected in all directions by the explosive blast. Most of them would be drawn earthward and burn up in the atmostphere fairly quickly.
Even given a very high (in my opinion) amount of 5% staying in LEO, the odds of impacting something are still very small. If we assume BB size bearings, which I think are easily enough to disable most satellites, you have about 1400 bearings per pound, 7 million total, with 350000 staying in orbit.
LEO is an altitude of 200 to 2000 kilometers, with a volume of 1.3 tillion cubic kilometers, or 1.3 x 10^21 cubic meters, with a bearing density of 1 in 3.7 x 10^15 cubic meters. Guessing that the average satellite has a volume of 1 cubic meter, and with an orbit circumference of 41 million meters, this gives it a 1 in 90 million chance of hitting a bearing per orbit. With an average LEO speed being 7800 meters/second, 90 million orbits means the average satellite would last for 15000 years up there. With about 2500 satellites (as of 2006), the bearings would take out one satellite every 6 years.
I admit that's a simplistic view and based on a lot of educated guesses, but I don't think it would be a big deal. |
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Re: Space Wars: The First Six Hours of World War III
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Raku sure had a fine post,and yet for some obsquer reason I still think the bearing would take out mush more,,,but thats because my opinion,
is based on intuition,,but I will relent,to his eloquent math...
And as always I am left holding on to whatever hope I can find,that things will hold togeather,till something much more inteligent will come along to help us survive..someday.. |
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Re: Space Wars: The First Six Hours of World War III
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1. "If something there is dangerous to the USA, it must be completely destroyed. It should be announced as official politics."
????!!!!?
With this sort of mindless, nationalist, ignorant, aggressive, childish mentality, America will surely fall, in smoking ruins. A one-part system is inherently screwed. There must be balance and competition for our species to survive. Any attempt by the USA to politically dominate the world will result in the collapse of the system. Dictatorships never work. There will always be revolution, corruption and eventual dissolution. It's the law of nature; undeniable and irresistable.
Your mentality is neanderthal and stupid. The only chance for human progression and development is global democracy. Inflicting 'US democracy' on anyone that waves a gyroscope around will have one effect - enhanced global hatred. Bear in mind North Americans are already the least popular race on earth at the moment. watch out for the Chinese. They're taking over. And they don't tolerate fools.
2. "The USA is the only really self-sufficient country."
???
Crap. You're the biggest consumers on the planet. See how you go cutting yourselves off. You'll be screwed in weeks.
By the way, where are you from? Your use of English tells me that you must be a migrant.
3. "the USA should go full cold war era. Destroy all who stand in the way."
"Either you join the American Empire or we nuke you into oblivion."
Is there supposed to be some sarcasm in that?
If not, see above.
By the way, I'm not a Muslim, a radical, a middle-eastern, a lefty, or a godless communist. I'm English, Caucasian, livng in Australia, loving everything that the western world provides, and completely amazed by the crap that comes out of the minds of some Americans (seaboards excepted).
Sounds like a good book though... |
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Re: Space Wars: The First Six Hours of World War III
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More to the point I find the idea that the US should somehow have a need for "space infrastructure" highly offensive. I come from Europe so maybe I haven`t been properly trained to accept this sort of thing, but every american must see how threatening this is to anyone not yet enslaved, brainwashed or dead everywhere in the world.
You wear a rhetoric saying you are the Guardians of Freedom but this claim is not borne out of anything your country has done since WWII and perhaps beyond, considering how little truth actually gets piblished about anything important in our society.
The truth is most people want peace, it is in fact traditionally only very very rich people who like wars, since they`ll always be safe anyway. Most people also want to live in their countries without having them plundered, outsourced to regions which practise slave-labor or otherwise dismantled in the name of globalism.
Space based weaponry is a highly opressive phenomenon to the entire world, and the mere notion that such a structure could somehow be hijacked from an Afghan cave with a laptop and bring the US at risk is ridiculous. The best thing to do is to disassemble this and other forms of high tech weaponry and leave other people in peace, so that`s what I`ll recommend to Kurzweil and anyone else in positions of power.
The alternative is fascism, opression, surveillance, police state, wars and genocide.
Science doesn`t have to be about any of these things, but it is because some people have decided it should be. Scientists cooperating in such a drive are traitors to their fellow men, plain and simple. |
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