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Foreword to Virtual Humans
Permanent link to this article: http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0600.html
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Foreword to Virtual Humans
By the end of this decade, we will have full-immersion visual-auditory environments, populated by realistic-looking virtual humans. These technologies are evolving today at an accelerating pace, as reflected in the book Virtual Humans. By the 2030s, virtual reality will be totally realistic and compelling and we will spend most of our time in virtual environments. By the 2040s, even people of biological origin are likely to have the vast majority of their thinking processes taking place in nonbiological substrates. We will all become virtual humans.
To be published in Virtual
Humans, AMACOM, November 2003. Published on KurzweilAI.net
October 20, 2003.
If you ask what is unique about the human species, you're likely
to get a variety of responses, including use of language, creation
of technology, even the wearing of clothes. In my mind, the most
salient distinguishing feature of the leadership niche we occupy
in evolution is our ability to create mental models. We create
models of everything we encounter from our experiences to our own
thinking. The ancient arts of story telling were models of our
experiences, which evolved into theater and the more modern art
of cinema.
Science represents our attempts to create precise mathematical
models of the world around us. Our inclination to create models
is culminating in our rapidly growing efforts to create virtual
environments and to populate these artificial worlds with virtual
humans.
We've had at least one form of virtual reality for over a century—it's
called the telephone. To people in the late nineteenth century,
it was remarkable that you could actually "be with" someone else
without actually being in the same room, at least as far as talking
was concerned. That had never happened before in human history.
Today, we routinely engage in this form of auditory virtual reality
at the same time that we inhabit "real" reality.
Virtual humans have also started to inhabit this virtual auditory
world. If you call British Airways, you can have a reasonably satisfactory
conversation with their virtual reservation agent. Through a combination
of state-of-the-art, large-vocabulary, over-the-phone speech recognition
and natural language processing, you can talk to their pleasant-mannered
virtual human about anything you want, as long as it has to do with
making reservations on British Airways flights.
On the Web, we've added at least a crude version of the visual
sense to our virtual environments, albeit low-resolution and encompassing
only a small portion of our visual field. We can enter virtual
visual-auditory virtual environments (e.g., Internet-based videoconferencing)
with other real people. We can also engage in interactions with
an emerging genre of Web-based virtual personalities with a visual
presence incorporating real-time animation. There are also a number
of virtual worlds with animated avatars representing participants.
My own "female alter-ego," named Ramona, has been gathering a following
on our Web site, KurzweilAI.net, for over two years. Like a number
of other emerging "avatars" on the web, Ramona is a virtual human
who works for a living. Aside from demonstrating real-time animation
and language processing technologies, she is programmed with a knowledge
of our Web site content and acts as an effective Web hostess.
By the end of this decade, we will have full-immersion visual-auditory
environments, with images written directly onto our retinas by our
eyeglasses and contact lenses. All of the electronics for the computation,
image reconstruction, and very- high-bandwidth wireless connection
to the Internet will be embedded in our glasses and woven into our
clothing, so computers as distinct objects will disappear. We will
be able to enter virtual environments that are strikingly realistic
recreations of earthly environments (or strikingly fantastic imaginary
ones) either by ourselves or with other "real" people.
Also populating these virtual environments will be realistic-looking
virtual humans. Although these circa-2010 virtual humans won't
yet pass the Turing test (i.e., we won't mistake them for biological
humans), they will have reasonable facility with language. We'll
interact with them as information assistants, virtual sales clerks,
virtual teachers, entertainers, even lovers (although this application
won't really be satisfactory until we achieve satisfactory emulation
of the tactile sense).
Virtual reality and virtual humans will become a profoundly transforming
technology by 2030. By then, nanobots (robots the size of human
blood cells or smaller, built with key features at the multi-nanometer—billionth
of a meter—scale) will provide fully immersive, totally convincing
virtual reality in the following way. The nanobots take up positions
in close physical proximity to every interneuronal connection coming
from all of our senses (e.g., eyes, ears, skin). We already have
the technology for electronic devices to communicate with neurons
in both directions that requires no direct physical contact with
the neurons.
For example, scientists at the Max Planck Institute have developed
"neuron transistors" that can detect the firing of a nearby neuron,
or alternatively, can cause a nearby neuron to fire, or suppress
it from firing. This amounts to two-way communication between neurons
and the electronic-based neuron transistors. The Institute scientists
demonstrated their invention by controlling the movement of a living
leech from their computer.
Nanobot-based virtual reality is not yet feasible in size and cost,
but we have made a good start in understanding the encoding of sensory
signals. For example, Lloyd Watts and his colleagues have
developed a detailed model of the sensory coding and transformations
that take place in the auditory processing regions of the human
brain. We are at an even earlier stage in understanding the
complex feedback loops and neural pathways in the visual system.
When we want to experience real reality, the nanobots just stay
in position (in the capillaries) and do nothing. If we want to
enter virtual reality, they suppress all of the inputs coming from
the real senses, and replace them with the signals that would be
appropriate for the virtual environment. You (i.e., your brain)
could decide to cause your muscles and limbs to move as you normally
would, but the nanobots again intercept these interneuronal signals,
suppress your real limbs from moving, and instead cause your virtual
limbs to move and provide the appropriate movement and reorientation
in the virtual environment.
The Web will provide a panoply of virtual environments to explore.
Some will be recreations of real places, others will be fanciful
environments that have no "real" counterpart. Some indeed would
be impossible in the physical world (perhaps because they violate
the laws of physics). We will be able to "go" to these virtual
environments by ourselves, or we will meet other people there, both
real people and virtual people.
By 2030, going to a web site will mean entering a full-immersion
virtual-reality environment. In addition to encompassing all of
the senses, these shared environments could include emotional overlays,
since the nanobots will be capable of triggering the neurological
correlates of emotions, sexual pleasure, and other derivatives of
our sensory experience and mental reactions.
In the same way that people today beam their lives from Web cams
in their bedrooms, "experience beamers" circa 2030 will beam their
entire flow of sensory experiences, and if so desired, their emotions
and other secondary reactions. We'll be able to plug in (by going
to the appropriate Web site) and experience other people's lives
as in the plot concept of "Being John Malkovich." Particularly
interesting experiences could be archived and relived at any time.
By 2030, there won't be a clear distinction between real and virtual
people. "Real people," i.e., people of a biological origin, will
have the potential of enhancing their own thinking using the same
nanobot technology. For example, the nanobots could create new
virtual connections, so we will no longer be restricted to a mere
hundred trillion interneuronal connections.
We will also develop intimate connections to new forms of nonbiological
thinking. We will evolve thereby into a hybrid of biological and
nonbiological thinking. Conversely, fully nonbiological "AI's"
(artificial intelligent entities) will be based at least in part
on the reverse engineering of the human brain and thus will have
many human-like qualities.
These technologies are evolving today at an accelerating pace.
Like any other technology, virtual reality and virtual humans will
not emerge in perfect form in a single generation of technology.
By the 2030s, however, virtual reality will be totally realistic
and compelling and we will spend most of our time in virtual environments.
In these virtual environments, we won't be able to tell the difference
between biological people who have projected themselves into the
virtual environment and fully virtual (i.e., nonbiological) people.
Nonbiological intelligence has already secured a foothold in our
brains. There are many people walking around whose brains are now
a hybrid of biological thinking with computer implants (e.g., a
neural implant for Parkinson's Disease that replaces the function
of the biological cells destroyed by that disease).
It is the nature of machine intelligence that its powers grow exponentially.
Currently, machines are doubling their information processing capabilities
every year and even that exponential rate is accelerating. As we
get to the 2040s, even people of biological origin are likely to
have the vast majority of their thinking processes taking place
in nonbiological substrates.
We will all become virtual humans.
© 2004 Peter Plantec
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Mind·X Discussion About This Article:
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Re: Foreword to Virtual Humans
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Then the substance the pancreatic nanobot is made from is immune from attack, or at least destruction by the body's immune system.
I've read of problems of putting foreign objects in the body, such as an artificial heart valve. It seems cells can grow over the surface of the object, or it can leak molecules, or other undesirable effects.
Most current nanotechnology seems to be silicon based, which is probably reasonably proof against the immune system. However, mixing atoms (such as other metals) with the substrate can lead to problems from the chemical environment (salts and the alkaline pH), so there will need to be some kind of protective coating, such as glass. Long-term, you can have things like sodium ions leak through a glass layer, which would probably damage the structures below the glass. And you can have other long-term effects, like cells growing over the surface of the nanobot and gunking it up.
Then you have the other problem of what to do when they fail. Perhaps they cannot be chemically dissolved by the body, in which case they'd pile up and create problems. I suppose a few replacement nanobots would need to be injected periodically. Maybe some kind of nanomachine/transport could inserted into a kidney so it could capture the failed nanobots and move them from the bloodstream to the urine.
Healthy nanobots would need to be smart enough to stay in the bloodstream, circulating around until they found a place to settle down. And sick nanobots would need to "let go" and start circulating around again so they'd be exposed to whatever mop up mechanism was in place to eliminate them.
Nothing lives forever, especially in a chemically hostile environment. If the average lifespan of a nanobot was ten years, then over a lifetime a human might accumulate seven or eight (or more) times the number of nanobots that are actually functioning. And given the context here, we might need several hundred thousand functioning nanobots to do the job. That would be a lot of useless silicon lining the capillaries.
Food for thought.
Scotty
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Re: Foreword to Virtual Humans
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Ray writes: “to populate these artificial worlds with virtual humans.” and I ask But who will primarily be those virtual humans, my answer, it will be us, real individual persons simulated in the cyber space first!
Ray writes: “My own "female alter-ego," named Ramona, has been gathering a following on our Web site, .. Like a number of other emerging "avatars" on the web, Ramona is a virtual human who works for a living.” I am suggesting in a work soon to be sent to Kurzweil "you have started with Ramona, but better now proceed to Raymond!:) collecting data through personality capture for later cyber reanimation of your self. this is feasible even now to commence, and on the way achieve another immortality option to yourself and to many other sooner than expected. the mentioned work is aimed to clarify that.
Ray writes: "We will be able to go" to these virtual environments by ourselves, or we will meet other people there, both real people and virtual people". and I ask, why not real virtual people?!
the mentioned work is titled "Ray Kurzweil and the info-resurrection project".
The “info-resurrection” assumption is that the critical information regarding a person and his identity can be gathered by reliable “personality capture” procedure available mostly today and can shortly be refined and perfected.
It is a matter of fact that your personal genetic code [genotype] can be stored. The Info-Resurrection assumption, is that you can also capture now the critical information regarding your personality and your identity
Yet, the info-resurrection suggests further retaining the fidelity of the original person in his reanimated second phase, by instantiating the second phase person on his genetic code. The reconstructed person will either be as a biological clone of himself who also carry his life experience and self identity, or better off as non-biological entity. The dominant role of genetics in determining personality traits is widely accepted. Physical structure, appearance, intelligence, potential dispositions, abilities, emotional structure and more are deeply determined by hereditary. Of course the real person is a combination of hereditary and “life-experience” and this is exactly what info-resurrection method is aimed for, to gather the salient information of both. the claim of info-resurrection is that the genotype information, together with the personality and identity critical information can be stored as precious back up copy of a person, in case anything else go awry, to be reinstantiated by future IT. If this assumption holds water it means that future converging information technologies will be able to use information derived at present time to reproduce a person which will maintain the critical information of the original self and hence one’s personal survival provided certain conditions are maintained.
Good, reliable and cost-effective back-up copy of yourself, information that can be gathered at present time.
For substantiation of this assumption, more exploration is required before we set the foundation on a firm ground. that I am trying to do that in this work.
The info-resurrection project would probably develop along these temporal phases. A. firstly a reliable personality capture to document the your personality and identity critical information, which basically can be done at the present (with certain refinements along this decade). – see W.S.Bainbridge..
b. with the advent of stronger personal artificial intelligence, the vivid and convincing simulation of your personality in the virtual environment as well as a robot.
c. with further development of converging information technologies - genetics, computation, artificial intelligence and probably mature nanotechnology - the integration of your genotype in your personalized virtual entity to produce deeper fidelity between the duplicate and the original person.
d. further along the time axis, with the gain of more complexity leading to the emerging of consciousness in these personalized virtual personalities- now manifested as cyber entities, nanorobots, foglets - even bio-humans - or other manifestation of artificial persons - with enough fidelity between the original and second phase consciousness to the effect of their resurrection – if the original is no more - or of storing a reliable copy of themselves, in case all else will go awry. it is one of Kurzweil’s main themes that artificial brains will be thousands to millions times more capable than unenhanced humans, and that the best strategy to avoid alienation, domination or even annihilation of humans by machines is for humans to merge themselves in their machines. The Info-Resurrection method is the most direct way to achieve this merger, In the process to develop personalized artificial intelligence, while achieving at the same time acceleration of GAI, by illuminating and stressing the vital personality components of intelligence.
Personalized artificial intelligence is defined as vivid and convincing simulation of real people in the cyber space. Personalized artificial intelligence project, as integral part of the info-resurrection project, is meant to develop just that, planning ahead and gaining many insights to the enigmas of human intelligence and consciousness and its greatly enhanced artificial versions.
The prime question regarding the whole method here, is weather we can achieve enough similarity between the original person to his cyber duplicate to achieve survival of that person if required ? that question may be narrowed to the question of weather we can retain the person’s identity critical information through mainly present time – soon can be matured - personality capture process ? if the answer is positive, then it is clear that future converging information technologies will be able to use that information to achieve first convincing and vivid simulation and later conscious virtual personalities or nanotech robots which are reliable duplicate of the original person and even achieve further fidelity by integrating that information with the person’s genotype which plays a determinant role in a person’s behavior and structure.
the genotype information, together with the personality and identity critical information can be stored as precious back up copy of a person, in case anything else go awry, to be reinstantiate by future IT. If this assumption holds water it means that future converging information technologies will be able to use information derived at present time to reproduce a person which will maintain the critical information determining one’s original self and hence one’s personal survival if required or good, reliable and cost-effective back-up copy of yourself.
from Chapter one the self and its survival
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