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Essay for E-School News
 
 
Speaking at the 18th Annual Conference on "Technology and Persons with Disabilities" at California State University Northridge in March 2003, Ray Kurzweil described how key developments in science and technology will affect society, alter education and other fields, and benefit everyone, especially those with disabilities. This article is based on that address. 
 
 
Originally published on eSchool 
              News July 1, 2003. Published on KurzweilAI.net Oct. 2, 2003. 
I've been involved in inventing since I was five, and I quickly 
              realized that for an invention to succeed, you have to target the 
              world of the future. But what would the future be like?  
To find out, I became a student of technology trends and began 
              to develop mathematical models of different technologies: computation, 
              miniaturization, evolution over time. I've been doing that for 25 
              years, and it's been remarkable to me how powerful and predictive 
              these models are. 
Now, before I show you some of these models and then try to build 
              with you some of the scenarios for the future—and, in particular, 
              focus on how these will benefit technology for the disabled—I'd 
              like to share one trend that I think is particularly profound and 
              that many people fail to take into consideration. It is this: The 
              rate of progress—what I call the "paradigm-shift rate"—is 
              itself accelerating. 
We are doubling this paradigm-shift rate every decade. The whole 
              20th century was not 100 years of progress as we know 
              it today, because it has taken us a while to speed up to the current 
              level of progress. The 20th century represented about 
              20 years of progress in terms of today's rate. And at today's rate 
              of change, we will achieve an amount of progress equivalent to that 
              of the whole 20th century in 14 years, then as the acceleration 
              continues, in 7 years. The progress in the 21st century 
              will be about 1,000 times greater than that in the 20th 
              century, which was no slouch in terms of change. 
When you say the pace of change is accelerating, most people are 
              quick to agree, as if that's an obvious statement. But when you 
              ask otherwise thoughtful observers—including Nobel Prize winners—what 
              they expect to see 50 years from now, they often vastly understate 
              the progress of technology. 
This happened at a conference I spoke at recently. Time 
              magazine held a conference on the 50th anniversary of the discovery 
              of DNA. Most speakers looked at the last 50 years and saw how much 
              change there was and used that as a model for the next 50 years. 
              No less a luminary than James Watson, the co-discoverer of DNA, 
              said that in 50 years we will have drugs that will allow us to eat 
              as much as we want and we won't gain weight. I said, 50 years? We 
              have done that in mice already by identifying the fat insulin receptor 
              gene. The drugs are on the drawing board now and will be in FDA 
              tests in several years—and we will have these available in 
              close to five years, not 50. 
The first step in technological evolution took a few tens of thousands 
              of years: fire, the wheel, stone tools. And now paradigm shifts 
              take only a few years' time.  
The one exponential trend people have heard of is Moore's Law, 
              pertaining to the accelerating rate of computers and electronics. 
              Every two years, we can place twice as many transistors at the same 
              cost on an integrated circuit. They work twice as fast because the 
              electrons have half the distance to travel, so the speed of computing 
              doubles every two years.  
Scientists have been debating when that particular paradigm will 
              come to an end. Optimists say 18 years, pessimists say 12—but 
              sometime in the teen years, we won't be able to shrink computing 
              components any more because they will be just a few atoms wide. 
              Will it be the end of Moore's Law? Perhaps—but other paradigms 
              will emerge that hold even greater potential. 
3-D molecular computing
When the trend for traditional computers runs out of steam—and 
              we can see the end of that road—we will have three-dimensional 
              molecular computing.  
I pointed this out in my book "The Age of Spiritual Machines" four 
              years ago, and it was considered a radical notion then—but 
              there's been a sea change in attitude toward that idea. It's now 
              the mainstream view that we'll have 3-D molecular computing long 
              before Moore's Law runs out.</p>
            <p>There's been enormous progress in four years. In fact, the favorite 
              technology appears to be the one I have felt would win: <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Nanotubes')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Nanotubes')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">nanotubes</a>, 
              comprised of <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Carbon')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Carbon')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">carbon</a> atoms, that can be organized in three dimensions 
              and that can compute very efficiently. They're up to 100 times as 
              strong as steel, so you can use them to create structural components 
              and little "<a href="javascript:loadBrain('Machine')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Machine')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">machine</a>s." A one-inch tube of nanotube <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Circuit')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Circuit')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">circuit</a>ry would 
              be a million times more powerful than the <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Human')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Human')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">human</a> <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Brain')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Brain')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">brain</a>.</p>
            <p>We are miniaturizing all technology. The first <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Reading Machine')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Reading Machine')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">reading machine</a> 
              we created in the early 1970s used a large washing-machine-sized 
              computer that was less powerful than the computer in your wristwatch 
              now and cost tens of thousands of dollars. And we are also miniaturizing 
              mechanical <a href="javascript:loadBrain('System')" onMouseOver="playBrain('System')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">system</a>s, which inevitably will lead to <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Nanotechnology')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Nanotechnology')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">nanotechnology</a> 
              by the 2020s.</p>
            <p>Nanotechnology was first described by Eric Drexler in a pioneering 
              thesis he did at MIT in the 1980s. <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Minsky, Marvin')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Minsky, Marvin')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">Marvin Minsky</a>, who was also my 
              mentor, was the only professor willing to be his thesis advisor 
              because it was such a radical idea. Drexler described machines that 
              could be built <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Atom')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Atom')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">atom</a> by atom, and then replicated millions or billions 
              of times. Recently, scientists have used <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Supercomputer')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Supercomputer')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">supercomputer</a>s to simulate 
              some of his original designs from 1986.</p>
            <h2><b>Threshold of human <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Intelligence')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Intelligence')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">intelligence</a></b></h2>
            <p>Right now, $1,000 of computing power is between that of the brain 
              of an <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Insect')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Insect')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">insect</a> and a <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Mouse')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Mouse')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">mouse</a>, at least in terms of <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Hardware')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Hardware')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">hardware</a> <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Capacity')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Capacity')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">capacity</a>. 
              We will cross the threshold of the hardware capacity of the human 
              brain by 2020, and the computers we use then will be deeply embedded 
              in our environment. Computers per se will disappear; they will be 
              in our bodies, in tables, chairs, and everywhere. But we will routinely 
              have enough power to replicate human intelligence in the 2020s. 
            </p>
            <p>Critics say, "Sure, we will have computers that are as powerful 
              as the human brain, but they will just be fast <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Calculator')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Calculator')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">calculator</a>s and will 
              not have the other aspects of human intelligence." So, really, the 
              challenge is this: Where will the <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Software')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Software')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">software</a>—where will the templates 
              of human intelligence—come from? </p>
            <p>To achieve this, another grand project is needed, comparable to 
              the <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Human Genome Project')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Human Genome Project')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">human genome project</a>, to really understand the <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Method')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Method')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">method</a>s used 
              by the human brain. This project is already well under way, in terms 
              of scanning the human brain and developing detailed mathematical 
              models of <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Neuron')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Neuron')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">neuron</a>s and brain regions.  </p>
            <p>Resolution, speed, price, performance, and <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Bandwidth')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Bandwidth')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">bandwidth</a> of human brain 
              scanning is growing exponentially. An upcoming technology will be 
              able to see the <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Structure')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Structure')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">structure</a>s, non-invasively, of clusters of thousands 
              of neurons, giving scientists an ability to see how memories work. 
              At that point, we will begin to understand how the human brain applies 
              different cognitive functions. </p>
            <p>One point about the human brain: It's not really one organ. </p>
            <p>Asking "How does the brain work?" is a little like asking, "How 
              does the human body work?" You can't answer that question unless 
              you break it down. Well, the body consists of a lot of different 
              parts, and the lungs work differently from the heart, and the liver 
              has many regions. </p>
            <p>It's the same with the brain. The brain is actually several hundred 
              <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Information')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Information')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">information</a>-processing organs, and they have an intricate <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Architecture')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Architecture')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">architecture</a>. 
              We are beginning to describe in mathematical models how the different 
              modules of the brain work. </p>
            <h3>Reverse-<a href="javascript:loadBrain('Engine')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Engine')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">engine</a>ering the brain</h3>
            <p>In my view, it is a conservative projection to say that within 
              20 or 25 years we will have reverse-engineered the principles of 
              how the human brain works, and we will be using that <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Knowledge')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Knowledge')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">knowledge</a> to 
              produce <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Biological')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Biological')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">biological</a>ly inspired models of computation. We are doing 
              that already. We learned things about how the human auditory system 
              processes sounds. We used that in speech recognition, as I demonstrated, 
              and got better results. We are applying these insights into the 
              software of human intelligence.</p>
            <h2>Let's talk about some scenarios. </h2>
            <p>By 2010, computers will disappear. They will be so tiny that they 
              will be embedded in our environment, in clothing, and so on. We 
              will have high-bandwidth connections to the <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Internet')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Internet')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">Internet</a> at all times. 
              We will have eyeglasses for the sighted that display images directly 
              in our <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Retina')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Retina')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">retina</a>: contact lenses for full-immersion <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Virtual Reality')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Virtual Reality')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">virtual reality</a>. 
            </p>
            <p>I have a prototype, a <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Device')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Device')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">device</a> allowing me to teleport my image in 
              three dimensions to other locations from my office. I gave a speech 
              to people in Vienna, Austria. It looked to the audience like I was 
              present in three dimensions. People who did not know what was going 
              on thought I was there. </p>
            <p>By 2010, we all will be able to do this routinely—full-immersion 
              virtual reality. </p>
            <p>Besides <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Teleportation')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Teleportation')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">teleportation</a>, we will have relatively powerful (but not 
              human level) <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Artificial intelligence (AI)')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Artificial intelligence (AI)')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">artificial intelligence</a> (AI) on web sites—artificial 
              personalities such as the <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Avatar')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Avatar')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">avatar</a>-like <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Ramona')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Ramona')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">Ramona</a>, who greats visitors 
              and answers questions at the KurzweilAI.net web site. </p>
            <h2><b>Technology for sensory impairments</b></h2>
            <p>For the deaf, we will have systems that provide subtitles around 
              the world. We're getting close to the point where speaker-independent 
              speech recognition will become common. Machines will create subtitles 
              automatically and on the fly, and these subtitles will be a pretty 
              accurate representation of what people are saying. It won't be error-free. 
              But then, our own auditory understanding is not error-free, either. 
              The same is true of reading machines.</p>
            <p>We will have listening systems that allow deaf persons to understand 
              what people are saying. The inability to do so is the principal 
              handicap associated with deafness.</p>
            <p>For blind people, we actually will have reading machines within 
              a few years that are not just sitting on a desk, but are tiny devices 
              you put in your pocket. You'll take pictures of signs on the wall, 
              handouts at meetings, and so on. We all encounter text everywhere, 
              on the back of packages, on menus. By 2010, these devices will be 
              very tiny. You will be able to wear one on your lapel and scan in 
              all directions. These devices probably will be used by the sighted 
              as well, because they will allow us to get visual information from 
              all around us.</p>
            <p>Such devices also will translate the information from one <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Language')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Language')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">language</a> 
              to another for everyone. We've put together demonstration technology 
              to show just how the information will be transferred back and forth 
              from English to German, from German to French, from French to English, 
              and so on. </p>
            <p>And the voice we use in the demonstration is actually derived from 
              a new generation of synthetic speech. Although it sounds relatively 
              normal, it is not recorded human speech. We use that new speech 
              <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Synthesizer')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Synthesizer')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">synthesizer</a> in the Kurzweil 1000 and Kurzweil 3000 reading systems.</p>
            <h2><b>Exoskeletal aid for physical impairments</b></h2>
            <p>Another area of progress will be in relation to spinal cord injuries 
              and for physically disabled people in general. Two different scenarios: 
              I have always been interested in exoskeletal robotic systems that 
              you could put on like clothing. Such systems could be used discreetly. 
              They could be worn under regular clothing and be relatively invisible.</p>
            <p>Such a system would work in concert with the user's own <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Sense')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Sense')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">sense</a> of 
              balance, enabling the user to walk and climb stairs. Being unable 
              to do those two things is the principal handicap in, say, paraplegia. 
              Analysis shows this approach is feasible. One of the philosophies 
              of developing technology for the disabled is to work in close concert 
              with the general flexible intelligence of the disabled person himself 
              or herself.</p>
            <p>We are not yet on the verge of creating cybernetic <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Genius')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Genius')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">genius</a>es. But 
              we have many systems in our societies that already can perform intelligently 
              in narrow areas. We have hundreds of examples of these machines. 
              Some of them are flying and landing our airplanes, or guiding intelligent 
              <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Weapon')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Weapon')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">weapon</a>s. We have electrocardiogram systems that provide an analysis 
              as accurate as your doctor's. We have some systems that can diagnose 
              blood-<a href="javascript:loadBrain('Cell')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Cell')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">cell</a> images, others that automatically make financial decisions 
              involving stock-market investments. In fact, $1 trillion in stock-market 
              investments use these systems.  Other intelligent systems  look 
              for credit card fraud, and find optimal routes for <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Email')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Email')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">email</a> messages 
              and cell phone calls. </p>
            <p>In this way technology is already deeply embedded in our infrastructure. 
              Some observers ask, "What ever happened to artificial intelligence?" 
              It's like people going to the rain forest looking for ants, with 
              50 <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Species')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Species')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">species</a> of ants right below them. But the ants go unseen, because 
              they are embedded.</p>
            <p>A disabled person has a narrow need. In the case of a blind person, 
              he or she needs <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Access')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Access')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">access</a> to ordinary printed material. Deaf persons 
              need to be able to understand ordinary speech from people they encounter 
              at random. Devices to do such things can work in close concert with 
              the much broader, more flexible intelligence of the disabled persons 
              themselves. </p>
            <p>And that will be part of the <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Philosophy')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Philosophy')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">philosophy</a> of an exoskeletal robotic 
              device, to guide and provide balance. </p>
            <h2><b>Reconnecting broken <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Nerve')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Nerve')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">nerve</a> pathways</b></h2>
            <p>The more profound promise of this <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Research')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Research')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">research</a> will be to actually 
              overcome spinal cord injuries and reconnect the broken nerve pathways. 
              One of the challenges is that the nerves atrophy fairly quickly 
              through disuse. If you wait years after an injury, since the nerves 
              are not being used, they begin to degenerate. So the pathway is 
              no longer intact and functioning. </p>
            <p>There have been interesting <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Experiment')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Experiment')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">experiment</a>s in scanning brain <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Pattern')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Pattern')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">pattern</a>s 
              15 or 20 years after the injury in spinal cord patients. They are 
              asked to perform certain functions—lift your leg, walk across 
              the room. The brain-pattern activity was the same as in a non-disabled 
              person, but obviously it was not communicating, because the pathways 
              were broken.</p>
            <p>Still, it will be quite feasible to pick up the patterns in the 
              brain and <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Wireless')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Wireless')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">wireless</a>ly communicate them to the muscles, completely 
              bypassing the nervous system that's no longer functioning. </p>
            <p>Ultimately, we will be able to create the muscles as well. We are 
              creating muscle <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Analog')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Analog')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">analog</a>s for robots, but those could be used for 
              disabled persons as well. There are other challenges—creating 
              a skeletal system to replace one that may not be up to the task, 
              dealing with the cardiovascular implications. These are complex 
              projects, but I believe we will see profound steps forward by 2010. 
              And by 2020, I think we will have largely overcome the handicaps 
              of spinal cord injuries. </p>
            <p>By 2029, all these different trends will mature and come to a head. 
              A thousand dollars of computing power will be a thousand times more 
              powerful than the human brain. We will have completed the reverse 
              engineering of the human brain. </p>
            <p>In some ways, machines can do better than humans. Computers are 
              much faster than people when they master tasks and can share knowledge. 
              Something this computer has learned can be shared with thousands 
              of other computers instantly; whereas, if I learn French, I can't 
              just <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Download')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Download')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">download</a> that to you. </p>
            <h2><b>Enhancing our own intelligence</b></h2>
            <p>The implication of that will not be just an alien invasion of intelligent 
              machines to compete with us. We are going to enhance our own intelligence 
              by getting closer and closer to machine intelligence—and that's 
              already happening.</p>
            <p>There are many people walking around now who are essentially <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Cyborg')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Cyborg')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">cyborg</a>s 
              and have computers in their brains interfacing with their biological 
              neurons. The Food and Drug Administration just approved a neural 
              implant for <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Parkinson\'s Disease')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Parkinson\'s Disease')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">Parkinson's disease</a> that replaces the portion of the 
              brain destroyed by that <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Disease')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Disease')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">disease</a>. And there are more than a dozen 
              different types of implants like that in use or being developed. 
              Now, they require surgical implantation; but by 2029, we will be 
              able to send these intelligent devices through the bloodstream.</p>
            <p>We are already beginning to put them into our bloodstream, although 
              the process is not as sophisticated as it will be in 2029. We will 
              be able to send very intelligent <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Nanobot')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Nanobot')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">nanobot</a>s—nano-robots—into 
              the blood stream to communicate with our nervous system, and they 
              will be able to provide a virtual reality, in which they shut down 
              the signals from my real senses and replace them with the signals 
              from that environment—and it can be just as realistic as actual 
              <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Reality')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Reality')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">reality</a>.</p>
            <p>Some of these environments will be earthly, some will be fantastic 
              and won't exist on <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Earth')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Earth')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">Earth</a>. A new <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Art')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Art')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">art</a> form will be to create new virtual 
              reality environments. You will be able to go there by yourself or 
              with other people and have encounters with one or thousands of other 
              people in these virtual-reality environments, incorporating all 
              the senses.</p>
            <p>One <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Phenomenon')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Phenomenon')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">phenomenon</a> will involve people—"<a href="javascript:loadBrain('Experience')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Experience')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">experience</a> beamers," I 
              call them—putting their flow of sensory experience on the Internet, 
              kind of like the <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Concept')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Concept')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">concept</a> in the movie "Being John Malkovich."</p>
            <h2><b>The <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Import')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Import')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">import</a>ance of hanging around</b></h2>
            <p>But the real profound implication will be an expansion of human 
              intelligence.</p>
            <p>Right now, we are restricted to a mere hundred trillion inter-neural 
              connections. I don't know about you, but I find that quite limiting. 
              Many people send me books to read, web sites to visit, conferences 
              to attend. And I would <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Love')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Love')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">love</a> to be able to do all these things, but 
              our human bandwidth is quite limited.</p>
            <p>Ultimately, we won't be restricted to 100 trillion connections. 
              We will able to create new ones with nanobots, and we will have 
              200 trillion connections or more.</p>
            <p>We are today profoundly expanding human intelligence as a species 
              through the Internet and all of our technology. Through much more 
              intimate connections with this technology, we will continue to profoundly 
              expand human intelligence.</p>
            <p>Human <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Life')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Life')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">life</a> expectancy is another one of those exponential trends. 
              Every year during the 18th and 19th centuries, we added a few days 
              to the human life expectancy. Now, we are at the intersection of 
              <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Biology')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Biology')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">biology</a> and information <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Science')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Science')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">science</a>. </p>
            <p>Today, we are adding about 120 days every year to the human life 
              expectancy. With the full flowering of the <a href="javascript:loadBrain('Biotechnology')" onMouseOver="playBrain('Biotechnology')" onMouseOut="stopBrain()" class="thought">biotechnology</a> revolution, 
              within 10 years, we will be adding more than a year to the human 
              life expectancy every year. </p>
            <p>So if we can hang in there for another 10 years, we may actually 
              get to experience the full measure of the profound century ahead.</p>
            <p><i>© 2003 KurzweilAI.net</i></p>
            <p> </p>
            
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<td bgcolor=#CCCCCC><p>the specimen pools<br><span class="mindxheader"><i>posted on 10/04/2003 11:21 AM by <a href="/mindx/profile.php?id=585">trait70426</a></i></span></td>
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<td bgcolor=#DDDDDD colspan="4"><p>as we glide in toward the sing, millions of human and posthuman specimens are going to be required in the laboratories.  mice and bugs arent going to do the trick anymore.  it could be considered a kind of perpetual holocaust.  lasting forever.  </p></td>
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<td bgcolor=#CCCCCC><p>Re: the specimen pools<br><span class="mindxheader"><i>posted on 10/04/2003 12:58 PM by <a href="/mindx/profile.php?id=2">subtillioN</a></i></span></td>
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<td bgcolor=#DDDDDD colspan="4"><p>enter the neo-mort vegetable...</p></td>
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<td bgcolor=#CCCCCC><p>Re: the specimen pools<br><span class="mindxheader"><i>posted on 10/04/2003 7:34 PM by <a href="/mindx/profile.php?id=175">JoeFrat</a></i></span></td>
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<td bgcolor=#DDDDDD colspan="4"><p>Are you talking about clinical trials? Do you think we will start performing experiments on people against their will? </p></td>
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<td bgcolor=#CCCCCC><p>Re: the specimen pools<br><span class="mindxheader"><i>posted on 10/04/2003 8:03 PM by <a href="/mindx/profile.php?id=2">subtillioN</a></i></span></td>
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<td bgcolor=#DDDDDD colspan="4"><p>We will give artificial birth to living cadavers for this purpose, if we can't develop functional biological organismic simulations.
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;-)</p></td>
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<td bgcolor=#CCCCCC><p>Re: the specimen pools<br><span class="mindxheader"><i>posted on 10/05/2003 4:38 PM by <a href="/mindx/profile.php?id=175">JoeFrat</a></i></span></td>
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<td bgcolor=#DDDDDD colspan="4"><p>For what purpose would you ever create a "living cadaver"? Don't you think there are plenty of blind people willing to experiment with artificial eyes?</p></td>
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<td bgcolor=#CCCCCC><p>Re: the specimen pools<br><span class="mindxheader"><i>posted on 10/05/2003 5:48 PM by <a href="/mindx/profile.php?id=2">subtillioN</a></i></span></td>
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<td bgcolor=#DDDDDD colspan="4"><p>Our ethics clearly limits the depth to which we can experiment on human subjects.  That is why we use animals.  The problem is that animals make for poor humans.  Hence, the neomort vegetable.</p></td>
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