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Arthur C. Clarke Offers His Vision of the Future
Permanent link to this article: http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0361.html
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Arthur C. Clarke Offers His Vision of the Future
The science fiction visionary behind HAL offers his predictions of salient events to come in this century.
Originally published December 3, 2001 on KurzweilAI.net.
On Friday, November 30, 2001, Arthur C. Clarke, author of 2001: A Space Odyssey, and inventor of the geosynchronous communications satellite, joined myself and two other panelists by video and phone connection from Sri Lanka to offer his vision of the future. The event took place at Worcester Polytechnic Institute in Worcester, Massachusetts in front of an audience of approximately 500 college and high school students and teachers.
The other panelists included Alison Taunton-Rigby, president of Forester Biotech and David Cyganski, WPI professor of electrical and computer engineering and an expert in machine vision.
The legendary science fiction author offered the predictions below. My own view is that Clarke's near term predictions involving energy are at least a decade premature. However, many of his predictions involving intelligent machines and nanotechnology are insightful and reflect a keen understanding of the acceleration of technological progress. Arthur C. Clarke's predictions for the next century:
2002 Clean low-power fuel involving a new energy source, possibly based on cold fusion.
2003 The automobile industry is given five years to replace fossil fuels.
2004 First publicly admitted human clone.
2006 Last coal mine closed.
2009 A city in a third world country is devastated by an atomic bomb explosion.
2009 All nuclear weapons are destroyed.
2010 A new form of space-based energy is adopted.
2010 Despite protests against "big brother," ubiquitous monitoring eliminates many forms of criminal activity.
2011 Space flights become available for the public.
2013 Prince Harry flies in space.
2015 Complete control of matter at the atomic level is achieved.
2016 All existing currencies are abolished. A universal currency is adopted based on the "megawatt hour."
2017 Arthur C. Clarke, on his one hundredth birthday, is a guest on the space orbiter.
2019 There is a meteorite impact on Earth.
2020 Artificial Intelligence reaches human levels. There are now two intelligent species on Earth, one biological, and one nonbiological.
2021 The first human landing on Mars is achieved. There is an unpleasant surprise.
2023 Dinosaurs are cloned from fragments of DNA. A dinosaur zoo opens in Florida.
2025 Brain research leads to an understanding of all human senses. Full immersion virtual reality becomes available. The user puts on a metal helmet and is then able to enter "new universes."
2040 A universal replicator based on nanotechnology is now able to create any object from gourmet meals to diamonds. The only thing that has value is information.
2040 The concept of human "work" is phased out.
2061 Hunter gatherer societies are recreated.
2061 The return of Haley's comet is visited by humans.
2090 Large scale burning of fossil fuels is resumed to replace carbon dioxide.
2095 A true "space drive" is developed. The first humans are sent out to nearby star systems already visited by robots.
2100 History begins.
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Mind·X Discussion About This Article:
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Re: meme-killers: assassination (unreliable), civilization (inefficient), then...?
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Actually the long version reads as follows:
2040 The "Universal Replicator," based on nano-technology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created - given the necessary raw material and the appropriate information matrix. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt. As a result, agriculture and industry are phased out, ending that recent invention in human history - work! There is an explosion in arts, entertainment and education. Hunter-gathering societies are deliberately recreated; huge areas of the planet, no longer needed for food production, are allowed to revert to their original state. Young people can now discharge their aggressive instincts by using cross-bows to stalk big game, which is robotic and frequently dangerous.
So he didn't really mean the end of civilization. |
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Re: Arthur C. Clarke Offers His Vision of the Future
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First off, notice that there is no prediction of meeting an alien race, yet there is a prediction of an atomic explosion. My only disfavors with the predictions are where "out of the blue" events are predicted. I.E., the atomic bomb explosion.
Next, remember that the less machinery required to accomplish a task, the more likely it will make a dramatic and unexpected appearance. An example of something that requires little such infrastructure would be a theory of everything. However, anything that requires a large infrastructure is bound by the political environment, I.E. the space program.
There are also a few areas where branches were missed. If we had full self replicating nano-factories we could easily create the Mylar sail required to send a small inhabited ship to another solar system at large percentages of the speed of light, some say half. Given that the only currency at the time would be information (which I do agree with) any one of the current day space amaturists could download and print out their own Mylar sail based ship.
Now what I do agree with;
* Roughly around 2002 we will have the knowledge to build a fusion power plant due to a new research facility opening that year. However there are many possibilities, such as the inventor of the super soaker (an employee of NASA) who has been working on a water-based engine for years. If it's an out of the blue energy source who knows, if it's something that's been in development it will likely be fusion.
* A new form of space based energy? Solar panels that microwave energy down? Why even bother unless it's super cheap. It could also be based on another particle, a new 6 billion dollar particle accelerator is being proposed that should give us new insights into particles that are so far mostly hypothetical.
* Big brother -- The more advanced a communication technology is the easier it is for those in power to tap such technology. Before telephone you had to open a letter, leaving evidence of your eaves dropping. However I feel a technology will be invented based on entanglement which will effectively block the ability to tap into communications in any way -- eventually (a litter after a theory of everything).
* "2011 Space flights become available for the public." Depends on what you mean by public. Someone bought a trip to MIR a little while back.
* Complete control of matter at the atomic level, possibly. Of course this will void the Heisenberg uncertainty principle, among other things, which I never fully agreed with. More likely it will be virtual matter, or quantum dots.
* Artificial Intelligence in 2020 -- only if you're buying into the crap about the human brain being a perfect computer. Lets not forget two things... ANNs (Artificial Neural Networks) aren't limited by physical constraints such as distance or physics, just math. Oh, I agree this will happen by 2020, but if you include the rate of growth ANNs will receive by hobbyists in the future you'll eventually start finding algorithms much more sophisticated than the human brain could handle. I'm betting on human level AI by 2008. If it's after 2008 we hit our limits on computer growth by 2010, by which time we would have adopted a new, quicker growing technology.
* "The first human landing on Mars is achieved. There is an unpleasant surprise." Yep, but it's more likely to do with philosophy than space monsters with ray guns.
* "2023 Dinosaurs are cloned from fragments of DNA. A dinosaur zoo opens in Florida." I agree 100% with this one, even down to the Florida detail :)
* Universal Replicator, only the holy grail of nano-technology. Things have changed a little since K. Eric Drexler wrote his book. For one, the goal is now on building nano-factories to build specific items. There may be generic replicators, but their goal will be to build the specific ones making things more efficient. So I do agree with this one.
* The concept of human "work" is phased out. <sigh> The only thing in the list that terrifies me. What really terrifies me is that I think this will happen in an adverse way from the creation of AI, nanotechnology would just change the face of work from industrial to mental.
* The return of Haley's comet is visited by humans, as well as many before then.
Over all I agreed with most of the predictions. I just feel many are very contemporary, they have the feel of today's biases. Remember 100 years ago an electronic based computer may have been conceived, but not an integrated circuit. If someone didn't know there was an integrated circuit, they could not have known about miniaturization of electronics, and likely wouldn't have considered it important.
I feel the most important predictions won't be about what technology we have or even what events occur. What's important is what will be important.
--Jonathan
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Re: Arthur C. Clarke Offers His Vision of the Future
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I found this quote by Dr. Teuvo Kohonen, one of the fore members of self organizing neural networks. This also aids in my conclusion that ANNs will be emulating human level sentience well before 2020.
"However, I might have been among the very first ones on this new wave who realized that the artificial networks need not imitate biology. In analogy, the freely rotating wheel does not occur in the biological nature because it would be difficult to make it self-repairing. No blood vessels can be put through the bearing.
Today I tend to think that in information processing too there are mathematical ideals that the nature is desperately trying to imitate by all the biological means it has available, but some technical solutions are still impossible for it."
Also, as I said, my fear is that AI will somehow destory the idea of human work, not a universal self replicating nano-factory. What will be the point in hiring an employee for $120,000 a year when you can buy a copy of "super programmer delux" off the shelf for $50 that has been proven to be 10x as creative, 10x as talented, and 10x as knowledgeable as a coperable employee.
It would seem as if AI will be the end of humans as mental labor, and nanotechnology will be the end of humans as physical labor. However, fearing the inevitable is a lead to a downfall -- rather embrace it and adapt.
--Jonathan |
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space aliens are irrelevant - they aren't going to rescue you
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"Space aliens" are irrelevant for four reasons:
1. no species intelligent enough to get here is stupid enough to reveal itself to "authority"
- space aliens are anarchists or locusts, by definition, and if they're locusts, they aren't here yet, because we *ARE*.
2. an intelligent species obviously can generate a new species by building or breeding it, or simply dividing itself on ethical grounds, faster than almost any alien could detect radio waves and get here.
3. once here, aliens would necessarily remain invisible until they had adapted to local ecology and culture, i.e. looking human - accordingly they might accelerate sciences that facilitate that, e.g. show humans how to put cholorphyll in skin so "little green men" won't be considered alien
4. they probably don't believe our "news" - an intelligent species would know that all communications are fraudulent lures or admissions of various horrors, e.g. famines - they wouldn't trust a word of it, and would therefore stay away. But they'd watch. They probably like Roseanne.
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Peacemakers from outer Space
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I've heard about that this morning too: this "small" asteroid would be two kilometers in diameter (likely to ravage a few countries or a small continent) and the probability that it will collide in 2019 with our planet is dramatically low 10e-6 (as estimated today).
I tend to think that an asteroid, not a comet, big enough to require a world defense cooperation including at least the big five (China, India, USA, Europe & Russia) but also many others, would truely be a benediction provided an early warning enabling significant chances of success (let's say 20 km/10 years).
The unprecedented global scale of this project would help cristallizing the unity on earth, soaking up all major national defense budgets and rendering state interests vain & futile. It would also spur many technological revolutions (incl. advanced space propulsion concepts, energetic abundance, nanolifeforms,...) through competing subprojects, initiating remote space exploration.
The last protective layer could be the moon itself.
so, if some advanced extraterrestrial guardians of earth are reading this, please, let the show begin ! ;-)
http://janus.astro.umd.edu/astro/impact.html
jeff |
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Deeply Flawed Vision
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Clarke has apparently fallen hook, line and sinker into one of his magnificent, futuristic worlds. I've talked to the author Jack McDevitt who agrees that people - no matter what time they live or their technological innovation - are at heart concerned about tradition, continuity, human emotions and most fo all, relationships.
Clarke seems to think that folks discard lifelong traditions (freedom, religion, currency, the automobile, economic betterment, etc) and are transformed into pseudo-Startrek beings that live for scientific advances and world peace. No, in the future, ideology, religion and custom will still hold sway. Clarke is stuck in the past where changes must be BIG and must be directed by the all-powerful State...notice how many are government edicts. My prediction is that we will have incredible individual freedom - perhaps more than many can handle. |
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Re: Deeply Flawed Vision
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Clarke was certainly aware that he was not telling the future. Rather, his "predictions" are meant as a light way to touch on potentials of the coming century - some of which are important, some are purely wishes, some are just interesting speculation about a future too far out for anyone to really guess what'll happen.
The most interesting prediction was the first - very specific and near term - highly unusual coming from someone like Clarke. Perhaps he was just placing a bet that we're "due", or he had an intuition that there was more to cold fusion than just a hyped fraud - that the scientific community was a bit too quick to reject it with far too little investigation, out of anger over a perceived injury to the reputation of all science and scientists.
In fact, there was a news story just recently about the government agreeing to seriously review the claims of the small community of cold fusion researchers - it seems that they've built up at least enough of a case to pose a reasonable doubt that needs to be considered. Then there's the other recent story about bubble fusion.
I doubt we'll see a 5 year deadline for fossil fuel elimination out of George Bush - maybe from a Kerry administration. But the underlying importance implied for the related issues of oil dependence and (possible) global warming are right on target. I could certainly see Kerry pushing for a revision of CAFE to eliminate the light truck loophole, for example.
Before people criticize too much, perhaps they should try producing their own timeline of predictions. Overall, even if off by a few years, Clarke's doing an amazing job so far of touching the potential important events of this century. Biology, energy, environment, even a possible "singularity scenario" (the hunter-gatherer prediction, based on nanotech if I understood it correctly).
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Re: Deeply Flawed Vision
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Thanks for the reply. I admit that a lot of Clarke's "predictions" were tongue-in-cheek designed to elicit comments. But the overall tone suggests someone who is out of touch with the workings of the real world. Great events do not occur in a vaccuum nor do they spring from government edicts. They start locally and percolate upwards, whether it is music types, treatment of minorities or animals, safety concerns, conservation, new uses for the web, biotech products, new materials, mass transit... None of these originated on high.
Fossil fuels will not be replaced any time soon for one reason: No viable alternative exists. Solar power is too inefficient, wind power is complementary, geothermal is hit and miss, nuclear is politically incorrect. Scientific American suggests that fusion power costs would approximate current costs. Most peope do not realize who integral oil is to modern society - from plastics to building materials to clothes to carpets. Our reliance on oil will decrease by degrees - hybrid cars, more efficient engines, better engineering, etc. Nothing exciting or BIG but that's how the world works.
Finally, after a lifetime of politics both in and out the beltway the suggestion that Kerry would tackle the fossil fuel problem is laughable at best. Up to now, his sole feature had been a fierce protection of special business interests who (suprise) supplied campaign funds. But this plays into my argument, namely that politicians will not be the fountainhead of great changes. They simply play catchup.
Have a nice day. |
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Re: Deeply Flawed Vision
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I don't see an over-emphasis on government and politicians in his predictions. Only a few - maybe four - relate to things that might be interpreted as government imposed changes.
I agree that major changes generally don't originate from politicians, but very often the event that most clearly signals "the change is in effect" is a decree or law or war or some other government effect. When enough people agree that change is required, they tend to go to government to enforce or accelerate the change.
--------
To make my own predition - I'm not bold enough to assign it a date, but it could happen fairly soon:
"When it becomes apparent that the energy shortage is real, shivering and fuel-rationed American suburbanites demand that the "backyards" of Nevada be sacrificed - new nuclear power plants will be built there in record time ('spotted owls be damned!'), with energy to be exported via superconducting power lines and eventually via manufactured fuel. Radioative waste won't be produced in or transported through anyone else's backyard, so environmentalists can't successfully use the usual NIMBY FUD tactics against it. The President lets the Greens know that he will squelch any lawsuits by declaring a state of emergency if necessary."
Note that this prediction doesn't require that the world be running out of oil and gas - just that America no longer be able to afford nearly as large a share of it. The most likely scenario for this to happen is that the value of the dollar collapses under the combined load of US debt and a global loss of confidence in the US as a superpower.
Here's a scenario - not something I hope will happen, but an example of what could happen:
The US tries to invade Pakistan to "get Osama like we did Sadaam". An Islamic coup occurs there, and the new leadership drops a few small A bombs INSIDE Pakistan on the invading troops. The US reluctantly decides that it can't retaliate with nukes against an enemy willing to nuke itself to drive them out. Its forces withdraw to Afghanistan.
Heartened by Pakistan's example, Islamic coups take place in a handful of other nations in the region. In a religious ferver, they send small armies to converge on the remaining American forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. The new governments of the oil producing nations boycott the US and anyone supporting the US. With land supply routes nearly cut off and casualties mounting, the US eventually admits that it can no longer foresee achieving any strategic goals by remaining in the region, and arranges for a ceasefire so it can withdraw.
The impact on US prestige is enormous, and clearly the oil boycott is going to hurt the US economy. The value of the dollar collapses. Oil producers still willing to sell to the US demand payment in Euros or Yen or other 'hard' currency. Combined with the boycott, the US finds itself with a deep energy import shortage, and prices of everything skyrocketing.
The People Demand Action: look-out, Nevada - all your backyards are belong to us.
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Re: It's all about assumptions
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The main assumptions that Clark makes are those that subvert human nature.
He talks about the abolition of problems by advancements in technology. So, technology and science do away communism and capitalism by the application of chaos theory. Technology does away with war. How does all of this messiah-like technology do all of this?
First, the causes of most problems are due to human inclination. For instance, the more technology we gain, the more deaths are racked up in war. Why? Because human inclination to dominate in thinking, production, or whatever cannot be stopped.
Rodenberry and Clark both have the same problem with their vision of non-capitalist/non-communist societies. Whenever a system is tried that supposedly makes people equal, laziness or power-lust take over. Those that don't have any ambition are rewarded anyway and those that desire dominion end up in position of government. Human nature is the cause. The only way to overcome the human nature of corruption is to utilize the survival instinct (the immediate kind, not the long-term). Communism can't do it because of its coddling nature and capitalism can't do it because of its offsetting nature (separation of classes, i.e. - money and power creating untouchables).
Immediate survival will cause people to do just about anything. The question is, what kind of system creates that kind of motivation? None in Sci-Fi and certainly no ethical examples in history. One non-survival driven group has always been in dominion of survival groups - feudalism, communism, imperialism, etc.
The point is: despite the non-synchronicity of the dates, the technologies that Clark suggest could be possible, but the blissful utopias that he comes up with are not possible when considering human nature practically. |
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Re: It's all about assumptions
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Arthur C. Clarke is entirely too optimistic and is too cognitive to understand the mechanics of today's society. Having read several of his books, I can see that his inclination to science, math, and technology often leaves him lacking in other matters. Namely, reality.
Besides, any theory of the future cannot possibly take into account all the possible perturbations of history, even given all of the current scientific achievements and trends.
It is unfortunate that most people alive today cannot see beyond their own petty lifetimes and respective interests. Oil companies, corrupt politicians, and the elite upper class will continue to mold the world for their own individual good, while we reap the consequences.
There will be an immense opportunity for the wealthy oil companies when the world's resources slim to nothing. Profit will be the deciding factor here. I would not be surprised to be paying $35 to a gallon in 2020.
I speculate that the space age is coming to a close and will be a precursor to the colonization of space a few centuries hence (in much the same way that Christopher Columbus visited america centuries before the english settled here). in the galactic scheme, we humans as a whole have become introverts.
As for politics, I would not be surprised if in the year 2100 there is no United States of America. Science is vanishing from the classroom and with the No Child Left Behind Act kids are only getting dumber and more ignorant on what really matters. (I agree with Michio Kaku in his book "Visions"). Furthermore, this fairy tale of playing God in international affairs will be tolerated only so far.
Of course, I could be wrong about everything. I make these analyses on what is palpable today- I'm sure the future has a few surprises up its sleeve.
(On a special note, as much as I enjoyed reading about the Copernican Principle in regards to predicting the future, I think its applicability is limited and should be put away until we discover a meaningful purpose for it). |
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Re: Arthur C. Clarke Offers His Vision of the Future
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We are living in the most dynamic time in history. Technological advances are accelerating at break neck speeds, as are the threats against our very existence as a species. Some of these threats are relatively well known (e.g. global warming, nuclear war, solar flares, loss of bio-diversity, buildup of air pollution, gradual loss of human fertility, various religious doomsday scenarios etc.) while others (e.g. misuse of nanotechnology, genetically engineered biological agents, physics disasters, hydroxyl apocalypse etc.) are of little concern by the general population.
My suggestion in regards to Mr. Clarke's vision on the future is a simple one. Leave the traditional gloom and doom point of view out of your vision of the future. Everyone is aware of the dynamics of our evolving species. Why not provide a more positive vision of the future. For example;
Vision Statement
Human civilization now stands at the apex (utopia - dystopia) of total global awareness. The dawn of a new beginning of enlightenment and transcendence is awakening the human spirit with the advent of a new space paradigm and its many possibilities. The world is thriving with selfless beings that desire to transform and prepare this world for the future. These beings follow the purview of biological, physical and spiritual laws. They see themselves as subjects that can determine their own fate through will, consciousness, language, reason, subjectivity, purpose, morality and a direct spiritual connection to the light of the universe. They see what human beings have in common is more deeply embedded than what separates them. They believe that the future of humanity will be shaped by the spiritual well-being and existence of a single unified race that will reveal to humanity its true purpose and understanding of the intelligence behind the living universe.
Expanding cosmic consciousness will evolve humankind into beings of truth and light. Human minds will empty fear, uncertainty, psychic phenomena and mental waste from their consciousness. The battle between good and evil will no longer polarize the human mind into false judgments as these phantasms of deception and control will soon vanish from the forefront of human thought. The infection of addiction and consumption shall also pass, as will the disbanding, fragmenting, splintering and destroying of source knowledge and wisdom. Twisted knowledge and misguided wisdom shall no longer be used to control the human mind or spirit. Nothing shall be hidden. The human mind will move into a perpetual state of exploration, association and happiness within the infinite breath of the universe.
Each human being shall have a true and unique identity filled with unassailable integrity that will enable all human beings to interact with any on or off world cultures, no matter how strange. Human beings shall have a great guiding light of ancestral knowledge that will enlighten every experience as the revelations of the universe unfold. Human beings will accept the idea of life throughout the universe because they can recognize and cherish all life.
In understanding humanity, in accordance with the human way of thinking and in consequence with human principles, human beings are more than a system of floating ideas or causalities of conscious beliefs and fears. Collectively, humanity can grow in knowledge and wisdom to understand that there is a first mover unmoved. A first cause in the chain of causes. A rational designer of the universe who is the all encompassing, and absolute Alpha and Omega.
What we can see in this lifetime is life after life. As a collective, humanity will realize that it has become a beast of competitive egos, political separatism and endless ethnic divisiveness, compounded by religion and bad governments. The flow of human events will quickly arrive at a new destination, where human beings decide to depart from their old ways of material concern and move in a concerted new fashion to end global destructiveness and violence. This new realization will ripple through and change the mental circuitry of millions of minds around the world enough to correct the current flow of negative human events. Large numbers of people will become teachers of goodness and generosity through their compassionate deeds, actions and example. Filled with beliefs, and passionate dreams of true hope, reason and judgment shall make peace within all unattended human passions. Individuals will become peacemakers and lovers of life, able to contribute to the compassionate reasoning of the collective to allow mankind to live through its daily rebirth and rise above the ashes of yesterday's destruction.
The future of humanity shall be filled with light. Human beings will realize the inextinguishable truth that will surface from a sudden paradigm shift in intellectual and spiritual capital. A new balance will emerge in societies around the world, providing collective ways to create growth through means of innovation and co-operative economic parity.
The reins of power shall be tightened by a more responsible and secure intellectual community as we begin to simultaneously address globalization, environmental change, widespread poverty and rapid human population growth within the context of one race, one planet. Human rights, political participation, economic productivity and scientific development will dramatically intensify, forcing existing political and economic models to be re-conceptualized, transformed and balanced. This reset will develop a more united, globally oriented human society to form a single, non-political world government with centralized powers that respect all cultures, languages and economies. New "share and sustain" global laws will emerge to include control of state raw materials, unnecessary importation and waste of materials. The primary driving force during this transition period will be the emergence of an intellectual revolution that will fuel self-reliant cultural and spiritual movements to transcend all systemic control mechanisms and environments currently ruled by a few "hoarded wealth" states and institutes.
Conclusion
A cosmic sense of purpose and belief in self enhanced critical and creative thinking is the only true way to see the possibilities of the future. It is clearly a question about the natural world and the intellectual adventure of pioneering fundamental truth into a broader model capable of appealing to the universal potentials of human understanding.
I wish you well.
Orflin
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